Republicans Likely to Lose House Control in 2024, GOP Strategist Predicts

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In an assessment by GOP strategist Susan Del Percio, the Republican Party faces a probable loss of control in the House of Representatives for 2024 due to a recent districting ruling in New York. Since the 2022 midterm elections, where the GOP secured a narrow majority in the House but fell short of expectations, their edge has steadily eroded. Representative George Santos, a New York Republican, was recently expelled amidst a year-long string of allegations involving dishonesty and misconduct, contributing to the GOP's challenges. Additionally, retirements, such as that of former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, further jeopardize the party's hold on the House for the upcoming election.

The New York State Supreme Court's recent decision mandates a redrawn map of congressional district boundaries. Forecasts suggest that Democrats could exploit this opportunity to shift the balance by converting two to six Republican-dominated districts in their favor. Despite the GOP's surprising gains in traditionally Democratic areas of New York during the previous midterms, this new districting initiative could reverse those victories, potentially undermining the party's House majority in the impending election cycle.

During a Saturday segment on MSNBC, Del Percio, a seasoned Republican political strategist with a clientele including Rudy Giuliani, indicated a similar forecast. In response to Al Sharpton's inquiry about the implications of New York's ruling for Republicans in 2024, Del Percio explicitly projected that the party is poised to surrender their House majority.

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"On January 1st, the Republicans will have a slim two-seat majority, and they're in dire need of every possible vote," she explained. "Realistically, I don't see how they maintain control of the House. Among the six districts, three are highly contested, and two are poised for a switch. This shift will undoubtedly alter the landscape. I anticipate it paving the way for a speakership under [House Minority Leader] Hakeem Jeffries, to say the least."

The GOP's attempts to shape congressional maps through gerrymandering, aimed at securing their advantage, have encountered significant obstacles in various states, including New Mexico, following comparable court directives. Alongside this, the ongoing congressional session stands out as one of the least productive in U.S. history, marred by scandals and internal conflicts. This troubled environment has prompted numerous analysts to forecast dissatisfaction among voters regarding the GOP's leadership within the chamber.

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